Statistician Simon D. Angus of Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, writing in Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, says the earliest we’re likely to see a sub-2 marathon is 13 years from now. His prediction is that the chance of it happening by May 2032 are about 10 per cent (or one in 10), and that we could see a man run 1:58:05 and a woman run 2:05:31.

Angus claims this is the first study to consider when a sub-2 is likely, just how much under two hours humans can be expected to run, by what date, and at various probabilities (taking into account at what rate, and by how much, the records have been improved upon in the past). It may also be the first study to seriously consider how fast we can expect to see a woman run the marathon in the future. Angus uses statistical modeling to arrive at his predictions.

He also defends his use of the 10 per cent likelihood benchmark by pointing out that record-breaking performances in the marathon are, by nature, extraordinary and unusual, and therefore we should be asking not “when is it likely?” but “when might it be possible?”

(By this logic, Angus has calculated that the odds of a sub-2 marathon happening by 2050, rather than 2032, are one in four, or 25 per cent.)

According to Angus, speculation about how fast a human could run 42.2K goes back to at least 1925, when the British medical journal Lancet published a study by A. V. Hill entitled “The Physiological Basis of Athletic Records.” As time has passed and more data has become available as more marathons are run, it’s become possible to predict future performances with greater accuracy. For example, some years ago researcher M. J. Joyner predicted a sub-2 marathon by 2021-2022, but Angus, based on more advanced methods used by Angus, he believes that prediction was overly optimistic. (Joyner & Ruiz’s study published in the Journal of Applied Physiology in 2011 uses “linear extrapolation without accounting for variability, compared to the non-linear, stochastic modeling of the present work.”)

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While many of us were asleep or heading to bed last night, Rachel Cliff was out pounding the streets over in Japan at the Nagoya Women’s Marathon. A rising star over the last few years, this is the second record Cliff has broken in the last 14 months. Finishing in 2:26:56, the smile on Rachel’s face tells the whole story.

Deservingly, Cliff has received many congratulatory messages via social over the last day celebrating her success. From former Athletics Canada Head Coach, Peter Eriksson, to Canada Running Series’ Alan Brookes, race organizer extraordinaire, Canada’s circle of elite runners—and many others—everyone was super happy to see Cliff run so strong to break this record.

Until recently Cliff may have been seen as the underdog, but make no mistake this woman has been working hard for as long as I have known her. Couple that with her kindness, plus her intellectual prowess, she is a role model that all women, young and old alike, can relate to and look up to.

Previously the women’s marathon record (2:28:00) was held by Lanni Marchant, another decorated distance runner in Canada. Marchant has been battling injuries since 2017, but is expected to make a return this summer; expect her to be a top contender in the marathon heading in the trials for Tokyo. Marchant is one valiant competitor and one of the fiercest women out there.

Cliff is not the only one to break a record in the early days of 2019. Back in January I wrote about Gabriela DeBues-Stafford breaking the indoor 5000m record (14:57), and a few weeks after that she smashed the indoor mile record (4:24.80). Both Madeleine Kelly and Jenna Westaway dipped under Diane Cummin’s indoor 1000m record; since Jenna was ahead of Maddy she will be listed as your record holder. Westaway went on a week later to break Melissa Bishop’s indoor 800m record, and is the first woman to dip under the 2 minute barrier in Canada: running 1:59.87. I almost forgot, Jess O’Connell broke the indoor 3000m record the week before she was 2nd at the NACAC 10k X-Country Championships over in Trinidad.

There must be something in the water with all these records going down. It starts with a new rise of great coaching in this country. In addition, I attest the rise of women’s running in Canada to the close knit community. We women here love and support each other. We work together, we celebrate each other’s success, and when we do that, we all rise up.

Sasha Gollish won a gold medal in the half-marathon at the 2013 Maccabiah Games, a bronze medal in the 1500m at the 2015 Pan American Games, and gold medals at the 2017 Maccabiah Games in the 800m, 1,500m, and 5,000m events. She is an elite runner and senior writer at iRun.